Post by rmarks1 on Oct 11, 2013 10:25:54 GMT -5
The main problem in dealing with climate change is not scientific uncertainty. It is the inability of political systems to deal with a certain type of risk and reward.
First, in this case, the geographic distribution of risk is unequal. Southern England might eventually have the growing seasons of France. Parts of Africa might see advancing deserts and increasing drought. And while New York City and Bangladesh might both be vulnerable to rising sea levels, only one will have the resources and infrastructure to adapt to change. Urgency will vary by region.
Second, the temporal distribution of rewards is unfavorable. Resources expended today will only get limited results well into the future. Because the cumulative production of carbon is the problem, many of the changes we are seeing are essentially irrevocable. “Most aspects of climate change,” says the IPCC report, “will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped.”
This does not mean that restricting greenhouse gas emissions is useless, just that it is politically thankless. Inaction may have terrible results. Even vigorous action, however, would only start limiting the terrible results at some point in the middle of the century. And it would never undo them. We could leave most of the vast reserves of fossil fuels in the ground — a political and economic impossibility — and still the ice would melt and the seas would rise. It is no wonder that politicians — even politicians who believe in warming — tend to have other priorities.
This leads to a fully justified form of skepticism, not about the scientific consensus but about the ability of political institutions — incapable of dealing with current crises or predictable fiscal challenges — to respond prudently to scientific risk when there is little political reward.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michael-gerson-politics-is-poorly-suited-to-respond-to-climate-change/2013/10/10/870c1138-31d0-11e3-9c68-1cf643210300_story.html?hpid=z3
First, in this case, the geographic distribution of risk is unequal. Southern England might eventually have the growing seasons of France. Parts of Africa might see advancing deserts and increasing drought. And while New York City and Bangladesh might both be vulnerable to rising sea levels, only one will have the resources and infrastructure to adapt to change. Urgency will vary by region.
Second, the temporal distribution of rewards is unfavorable. Resources expended today will only get limited results well into the future. Because the cumulative production of carbon is the problem, many of the changes we are seeing are essentially irrevocable. “Most aspects of climate change,” says the IPCC report, “will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped.”
This does not mean that restricting greenhouse gas emissions is useless, just that it is politically thankless. Inaction may have terrible results. Even vigorous action, however, would only start limiting the terrible results at some point in the middle of the century. And it would never undo them. We could leave most of the vast reserves of fossil fuels in the ground — a political and economic impossibility — and still the ice would melt and the seas would rise. It is no wonder that politicians — even politicians who believe in warming — tend to have other priorities.
This leads to a fully justified form of skepticism, not about the scientific consensus but about the ability of political institutions — incapable of dealing with current crises or predictable fiscal challenges — to respond prudently to scientific risk when there is little political reward.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michael-gerson-politics-is-poorly-suited-to-respond-to-climate-change/2013/10/10/870c1138-31d0-11e3-9c68-1cf643210300_story.html?hpid=z3
Bob Marks